What results from Qantas, Harvey Norman, Kogan.com, Autosports Group, QBE and Bluescope Steel speak for the economy | Rare Techy

While there have been legitimate concerns about rising airline fares, perhaps the bigger story about the economy is about consumer spending priorities – travelers may not be happy with the they pay, but many are still running.

In addition, Qantas’ forward bookings are getting stronger next year. Although there are advantages to the fact that it is possible to pay for cheap flights by booking in advance, it is said that many customers are very confident about their financial position to plan vacations to 2023.

Harvey Norman Executive chairman Gerry Harvey was bullish about the economy’s progress at its AGM on Thursday: we are nowhere near recession.

The group’s same-store sales rose 6.3 percent in the four months ended October, driven by wet and cool weather (which affected sales of air conditioners and outdoor goods). Harvey’s big problem.

The most interesting thing is that he talks about the situation in the rural areas, where 65 percent of the party’s stores are located. Although Harvey expects a slowdown in 2023, he says, strong conditions in mining and agriculture will drive the chain’s sales to the regions.

Online shopping Kogan.com in a difficult situation, gross sales in the first four months of the financial year have fallen 38.2 percent and the group posted a small loss for the period.

But this is more of a company-specific issue; A shift away from online shopping and back to brick-and-mortar shopping has been building since the COVID-19 restrictions were lifted earlier this year, and Kogan.com’s profits have been hurt by stockpiling. which forced stocks to lower profit margins.

The financial situation of the goods is starting to improve, giving Kogan.com the opportunity to improve the margins.

Friday brought an indication of strong consumer demand from the luxury car group Sports ClubIt said profits for the six months to December were between 22 percent and 28 percent ahead of last year, due to strong demand and orders following a two-year slump. cars.

Giant Logistics Cube The 2023 financial year is also off to a good start, with revenue, earnings and margins ahead of expectations in the four months to October. The secret to this strong start to the year? Higher volumes and Qube’s ability to push higher prices.

Although the weather and industrial relations are problematic, Qube’s strategy is in better shape for supply chain disruptions, and demand continues to rise. Again, it’s an understatement to say that consumer demand – or consumers’ willingness to pay higher prices – is in tatters.

Insurer QBE same story as Qube. Unsurprisingly, Australia’s severe weather is bad news for claims across the insurance industry. But QBE has had no problem pushing through inflation: gross profit rose 6 percent in the September quarter, or 13 percent on a cash basis. Bank charges in the Asia-Pacific region (with Australia being the largest) rose 9.4 percent.

If there was a word of warning this week, it came from it Bluescope Steelsaid its shipments to Australia and New Zealand had fallen in recent months, as falling interest rates and falling house prices weighed on the property market.

Bluescope’s experience is not surprising, given its proximity to the housing sector, which is suffering rapidly from interest rates. But can we take this as the canary in the consumerist coal mine?

Yes and no. It’s true that the drop in consumer spending will affect the jump in mortgage rates, which is only just beginning – Commonwealth Bank chief executive Matt Comyn says banks are already over 50 per cent. of rate hikes the RBA has proposed this year, and will reach 70 percent in March. The peak in borrowers from extremely low rates and the move to higher guaranteed rates will occur at the same time.

However, it should be remembered that savings pools in Australia are still deep, and most borrowers are ahead of their mortgages.

Bet on consumer pain that will emerge after Easter next year, with a ‘tipping point’ likely in the second half of 2023.